News ID: 7684
Publish Date: 01 March 2012 - 20:58
Number of comments: 1 Comment
A wide majority of Israelis either oppose an Israeli strike on Iran or would favor an attack only if it was carried out with US agreement, an opinion poll showed on Thursday.

 The survey by the University of Maryland and the Israeli Dahaf Institute was released before talks next week between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Barack Obama on Iran's nuclear program.

 The poll found that 34 percent of the 500 people surveyed believed that Israel should not strike Iran and 42 percent said it should attack only if the United States backed the decision.

 Only 19 percent believed Israel should attack even without the support of Washington, which said on Wednesday that diplomacy and increased sanctions to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions have time to work.

 Netanyahu and Obama are to meet at the White House on Monday amid US concern that Israel, which has cautioned that time is running out for effective military action against Iran's nuclear facilities, could attack them.

 Though both Israel and the United States have not ruled out the use of military force against Iran, US officials have said such action would be premature and could destabilize the Middle East.

 Iran says it is enriching uranium for peaceful purposes, not to build a weapon. Israel, widely believed to be the region's only atomic power, has said a nuclear-armed Iran would be a threat to its existence.


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Kooshy: So you're saying Israel never sent any subs to the Persian Gulf.OK, fine, I'll ielbeve that.Nice to be so confident of your enemy's lack of capability, but I think you're wrong on all counts.Maybe you should explain why IRAN has ANY subs then if they're completely useless in the Persian Gulf?I just found this PDF which analyzes Iran's issues with submarines in the Gulf:csis dot org/files/media/csis/pubs/060728_gulf_iran.pdfQuote:Iran faces significant operational problems in using its submarines in local waters. Many areas of the Gulf do not favor submarine operations. The Gulf is about 241,000 square kilometers in area, and stretches 990 kilometers from the Shatt al-Arab to the Straits of Hormuz. It is about 340 kilometers wide at is maximum width, and about 225 kilometers wide for most of its length.While heat patterns disturb surface sonars, they also disturb submarine sonars, and the advantage seems to be slightly in favor of sophisticated surface ships and maritime patrol aircraft. The deeper parts of the Gulf are noisy enough to make ASW operations difficult, but large parts of the Gulf including much of the Southern Gulf on a line from Al Jubail across the tip of Qatar to about half way up the UAE are less than 20 meters deep.The water is deeper on the Iranian side, but the maximum depth of the Gulf located about 30 kilometers south of Qeys Island is still only 88 meters. This means that no point in the Gulf is deeper than the length of an SN-688 nuclear submarine. The keel to tower height of such a submarine alone is 16 meters. Even smaller coastal submarines have maneuver and bottom suction problems, and cannot hide in thermoclines, or take advantage of diving for concealment or self-protection. This may explain why Iran is planning to relocate its submarines from Bandar Abbas, inside the Gulf, to Chah Bahar in the Gulf of Oman and is deepening the navy facility at Chah Bahar.The Strait of Hormuz at the entrance to the Gulf is about 180 kilometers long, but has a minimum width of 39 kilometers, and only the two deep-water channels are suitable for major surface ship or submarine operations. Further, a limited flow of fresh water and high evaporation makes the Gulf extremely salty. This creates complex underwater currents in the main channels at the Straits of Hormuz and complicates both submarine operations, and submarine detection. There are some areas with considerable noise, but not of a type that masks submarine noise from sophisticated ASW detection systems of the kind operated by the US and UK.Further, the minimum operating depth of the Kilo is 45 meters, and the limited depth of the area around the Straits can make submarine operations difficult. Submarines are easier to operate in the Gulf of Oman, which is noisy enough to make ASW operations difficult, but such deployments would expose the Kilos to operations by US and British nuclear attack submarines. It is unlikely that Iran’s Kilos could survive for any length of time if hunted by a US or British navy air-surface SSN hunter-killer teamIn any case, the effectiveness of Iran’s submarines is likely to depend heavily on the degree of Western involvement in any ASW operation. If the Kilos did not face the US or British ASW forces, the Iranian Kilos could operate in or near the Gulf with considerable impunity. If they did face US and British forces, they might be able to attack a few tankers or conduct some mining efforts, but are unlikely to survive extended combat. This makes the Kilos a weapon that may be more effective in threatening Gulf shipping, or as a remote mine layer, than in naval combat. Certainly, Iran’s purchase of the Kilos has already received close attention from the Southern Gulf states and convinced them that they must take Iran more seriously. End QuoteBasically this says something similar to what you claim, but it's not nearly so confident that Iranian subs are worthless. And the German subs Israel uses are better.Finally, subs are used to deliver espionage and Special Forces assets all the time. The North Koreans do it to South Korea occasionally. One of the NK subs grounded itself accidentally some years back in SK territory. The SK military captured most of the crew, but two NK Special Forces guys got away and eluded capture for 53 days, killing 11 of their pursuers. Tough guys, those NKs. The point is Israel could use those subs for espionage purposes, including SIGINT surveillance.Nobody's at war yet so a sub can go anywhere it wants as long as it is careful about straying into a country's coastal waters where it could be detected. And without a SOSUS type system, Iran probably has very limited sub detection capability even in its own waters, unless they're wasting fuel flying surveillance aircraft and their speedboats over the whole area, which I imagine is not feasible given the length of their coastline.All in all, all I'm saying is that I wouldn't dismiss the possible presence of Israeli subs in the Gulf so cavalierly without some real evidence other than the difficulty of the environmental conditions.
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