In Egypt a new revolution is taking place. Fundamental change in this process is gradual, not sudden. Egypt's Revolution is to achieve success through the steps to reach the final destination.
The lexical meaning of Revolution is being changed, transformed and transmitted. The new definition of politics has been having political, economic and cultural goals, comprehensive change, the destruction of the former regime, the transition of power completely, full replacement of the objectives, principles and ideals to the former principles.
Political analysts have different opinions about developments in Egypt. Some experts consider the developments of the past year as a revolution. And some other experts believe the developments in Egypt cannot be called a revolution. The author believes that recent developments of Egypt are a revolution with a new definition of revolution.
Egyptian Revolution, unlike other revolutions, has the nature of gradual phase. However, after the fall of "Mubarak", some former regime figures remain in key positions, but the public opinion demand for their removal. In Egypt a new revolution is taking place. Fundamental change in this process is gradual, not sudden. Egyptian Revolution is to achieve success through the steps to reach the final destination. If the Egyptian revolution failed at any stage, it will not achieve its goals and the former regime will be reproduced. A fundamental change in Egypt social structures demands more time so that Egyptian people can reach their goals and aspirations.
Overview on the Egypt's Revolution
In the introduction stage, the gradual phase of Egyptian revolution was investigated. This means that the various stages of this revolution will happen gradually and progressively. The successful passing of a step and entering a new phase, is certainly an important achievement. Egyptian nation patiently go through the various stages of the revolution step by step and the birth of the Egyptian phoenix from the ashes is the blessed hope. We will continue to review these steps. Some of these steps are over, and some are happening now and some will be over in future.
1. Public Demand for Change and Revolution: self-immolation of "Mohammad Bu Azizi" in Tunisia was a spark in the stock of gunpowder made by "Zeinolabedin Ben Ali" for his humiliation the people of Tunisia and his dependence on the West. Ben Ali on January 16, 2011 fell and flames made the explosion Hosni Mubarak, a longtime ally of the Zionist regime. Egyptian youth protests led to public demand in the Muslim people of Egypt to make a revolution.
2. Mubarak’s Fall: Egyptian youth sat in "Al-Tahrir Square" in Cairo on. People joined the youth. The flames of revolution were every day more than yesterday. Western politicians were confused and took contradictory positions confirming an incident has happened to them. Mubarak got one step closer to collapse and after 18 days of resistance of the Egyptian people on February 10, 2011, was ousted from power and according to Egyptian constitution, the military council took power in Egypt.
3. Power Transition: the process of power transition is gradual in nature. Since some parts of this process is over and the other parts are running with some obstacles. After the Egyptian parliamentary election which Islamists won, some parts of power transmitted to people and if the presidential election is held successfully and no obstacles created by the Military Council, the transition process will be completed and power will be transferred from the Revolutionary Military Council of Egypt to people and behind this important step, another step is prepared.
4. Modification and Changing Constitution: one of the most fundamental measures which should be taken is to formulate a new constitution based on values and ideals of the revolution. Some parts of this step have been taken and other parts will be persuaded after election. In this regard the constitution drafting committee with 100 members which is called Constitution Assembly is created and chaired by a member of the "Muslim Brotherhood".
Although there were differences between the Military Council and the Committee and even there were inner disputes among committee members - which led to the resignation of some members of this House - activities of the Committee suspended by Administrative Supreme Court but the committee after the presidential election begins its activity with some minor changes and its task of drafting the constitution and shaping the future of Egypt's political system is to be achieved.
5. Demand for Abolition of the Camp David: one of the main reasons the Egyptian revolution was the feelings of inferiority in the people of this country because of dependence on the Zionist regime. After a period of time, developments in Egypt and other Arab countries turned into an anti-Zionist phase from an anti-authoritarian phase. Egyptian Revolution, which in its essence and identity was an opposition to the Zionist regime, entered this phase more strongly.
Discourse of the abolition of "Camp David" was common among the revolutionaries after the Egyptian revolution. Some measures in this area accomplished like closing the Zionist regime's embassy in Cairo and cutting transmitting gas to the occupied territories.
6. Convergence with Resistance axis in Lebanon and Palestine and the Possibility of Creating Triangle of Egypt, Iran and Turkey: new Egypt in which the people come to power will not play as a compromise axis with Zionist Regime and will not ally with Saudi Arabia. New Egypt is getting nearer to resistance axis and after a long period of divergence, this country will enter a new phase of convergence with resistance axis.
Egypt's close alliance with the resistance axis will lead to a closer relation with Iran naturally and alliance with Turkey that is currently playing with the cards of the resistance. Then an important and influential triangle of three countries will be formed in the region.
7. The Overarching Claim of Egyptian Government to Play Role in the Muslim world and Islamic Awakening: Egypt as a key geopolitical actor can change the strategic balance in the Middle East and Arabic Africa. Changes in Egyptian political system means change in the strategic balance and subsequently changes in regional security arrangements and political relations. Inspiration of Arab World from Egypt's population which has some features like rich culture and long history of civilization and the ability of discourse making is a point that should not be ignored. Also the "Muslim Brotherhood" in Egypt, is the spiritual father of many Islamic movements in the Islamic world.
More branches of "Muslim Brotherhood" in different countries affected by this movement in Egypt. New Egypt will play a major role in the Islamic world and is the origin and source of inspiration for many countries in the Islamic world.
8. Convergence with Anti-Hegemonic Actors: convergence of Egypt with Islamic front will lead to a stronger connection of resistance axis and to creation of a powerful block of Islamic world which is an effective player in the region and the world.
Upcoming Election and the Formation of the West – Arabic Axis
After activities of various political groups began, America, Britain, Saudi Arabia and Qatar made a think tank in U.S Embassy in Cairo with the aim of guiding public opinion. This think tank wants to design media making opinion and do psychological operations to affect Egyptians votes and with the rise of a Western oriented government, prevent the Egyptian revolution to be completed and change the regional strategic balance in favor of U.S.
This think tank has developed two scenarios in this matter including:
A) Integration and unity of West- oriented candidates;
B) divisions and tension between the Islamist candidates.
West-backed candidates without any conflict should attack the Islamist candidates, Islamist candidates, especially the two main candidates, apart from criticizing the Western oriented, should attack each other so much.
Domestic Actors in Egyptian election: Egypt's first presidential election after the January 25 and Mubarak fall will be held on 23 and 24 May 2012 And 13 candidates have qualified to participate in this election. These candidates can be generally categorized into four major groups: Islamist, Western oriented, leftist-oriented and national oriented. The main competition is between the two Islamist candidates (Abdolmonam Abolfotooh and Muhammad Morsi) and a Liberal candidate backed by the West (Amr Moussa).
In the following we will briefly introduce the candidates.
Muhammad Morsi: he is the secretary of "Justice and Freedom" party (the political wing of the Brotherhood). He was the second candidates of Muslim Brotherhood after main candidate of Muslim Brotherhood "Kheirat Al-Shater" disqualified. Unlike other members of the Brotherhood he has not a history of imprisonment. If he can win the election, considering the support of parliament from Muslim Brotherhood, this movement can reach its ideal and aim about religion.
Abdolmonam Abolfotooh : Because of his belief in moderate Islam, he is supported by a range of young and reformist Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's middle class and intellectuals . After the announcement of presidential candidacy last year, he was excluded from the movement. The Muslim Brotherhood manifesto written by "Mohammad Morsy" (current candidate backed by the Brotherhood) posed Abolfotooh intellectual criticism in 2007. He is the candidate supported by some Salafis.
He lectures frequently about revision of Camp David and in his debate with "Amr Moussa" in relation to Iran he said: "Egypt's foreign policy should be independent and maintain good relations with Arabic and Islamic states, including Iran. Most important figures of his supporters are "Kamal Halbavi", "Yosef Qarzavi", "Fahmi Hoveidi" and "Vael Qanim". Some experts believe he will certainly be the winner of election.
Amr Moussa: he was formerly Foreign Minister of Egypt and Arab League Secretary General. His said in a speech: "Camp David is dead and buried". However, he said at the same speech "there is an agreement between Israel and Egypt that until Israel respect it we will also respect it." The document which defined relations between Israel and the Arabs was a plan that is based on the 2002 that has been raised step by step. His dual position has attracted the implicit support of "Shimon Peres" the head of the Zionist regime.
Ahmed Shafiq: The remnants of the former regime and Western oriented Egyptian who was head of the Egyptian Aviation Organization. At the end of Mubarak regime, he was appointed as prime minister. Many analysts believe that Ahmed Shafiq has caused Amr Mosa to feel more secure from a range of revolutionary young criticisms. He has not a great chance to vote unless Military Council wants something else.
Hamidin Sabahi: He is the founder and former president of the party, "Al-Karama", Former representative of the Egyptian parliament as an opposition and active in Egyptian media. He is one of the candidates with the tendency of Naseri. Due to his harsh criticism of the "Anwar Sadat" and "Mubarak", Nasser followers will probably vote on him. He has not a great chance to vote.
Possible Measures of Military Council in the Upcoming Election:
Military Council which is responsible for election can make corruption in process of election by 4 situations: Delay, Fraud, Cancellation and Tension.
Delay: One of the main concerns of revolutionary groups is the election deadline. Considering unwillingness of military council to transfer power, it is likely to delay holding election (in the first or second round). This scenario is strengthened when the discontent of some Salafi groups of their candidate "Hazem Salah Abouesmaeil" to rally in front of Defense Ministry of Egypt and led to the bloody events in "AL-Abasiye" square. A few days after this incident, the likelihood of this scenario is much reduced, unless the external factor in disrupting the election process, make adequate excuse to run this scenario by military council.
Fraud: After opposing the military council with external organizations to monitor the electoral process in Egypt, the likely scenario is an unhealthy and non-transparent and fair election by the military council. Considering the constitution based on Article 28, approved on March 30, 2011 the Independent High Electoral Committee announced the final result of the presidential election in Egypt confirmed by military Council, fraud is likely in the vote results. It is important that the public participation in the election makes the possibility of implementing this scenario less. If the votes of an Islamist candidate and a western oriented candidate are almost equal to each other, a minor fraud that leads to a fundamental change in the result is likely;
Cancellation: Supreme Court ability to invalidate the election results is a tool in the hands of military council to stop the Egyptian revolution and prevent the rise of the revolutionaries. The result of this scenario is to return people to the streets and returning people to the streets may lead to the destruction of Egypt's security mechanisms and the weakening or even collapse of the Egyptian army. In this scenario, military council will face a public semi-hard action and a civil disobedience and in return a strict action against the people.
Tension: In this scenario, military council will attempt to highlight bipolar liberals – Islamists or raise the internal differences of Islamists and the bipolar Tahrir-Abbasiye and broadly create unrest and conflicts to make the situation ready for military intervention in the electoral arena and then prevention of transition of power.
Strategic View on Egypt's Election:
Regardless of these scenarios which are likely to be raised by Military Council, a deep look at the election shows that if the victory of any candidates except Ahmad Shafiq (the worst option at the scene and the figure of the former regime) leads to the transition of power to people, it will be a victory for Egyptian revolutionaries because an important stage of the revolution is over and conditions are ready to accelerate the next steps. Power transition partly leads to Egypt driving away from Qatar and Saudi Arabia and changing regional balance in favor of Egyptian revolutionaries and resistance axis. This wining can lead to the results of 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 .
The anti-Israeli view among the Egyptian people will force the candidates to persuade the policy of anti-Zionist, affected by Islamist Parliament and people. After power transition in Egypt, this country from a strategic ally of the Zionist regime became one of the Zionist regime threats. In this regard, "Avigdor Lieberman," Foreign Minister of the Zionist regime said "Egypt now is a more serious threat than Iran".
So the three candidates can effect on Egyptian policy against Zionist regime. In this regard every three candidates declared positions on Zionist Regime. The positions are from limiting to cut off relations with the Zionist regime. All three candidates despite of the process of Iran phobia declared their positive approach on relations with Iran in his own viewpoint. Regarding to diversity of candidates with different attitudes and approaches the chance of one candidate to get power in first round of election is low.
Then the majority of observers are predicting the two – round election. So far the most polls show the leading of Amr Moussa and Abolfotooh with a little distance. But it is important that some of these polls targeted to guide public opinion and raise psychological operations to effect on voters. It should be noted to increase the votes of Abolfotooh after his debate with Amr Moussa and broadly social situation of the Muslim Brotherhood.
This movement has nearly half the seats in parliament and considering that almost half of the people of Egypt, yet not to make decision about their candidate and if Muslim Brotherhood can use of remaining time for increase the votes of his candidate, Muhammad Morsi can get the way to second round. Also, if one of the two Islamist candidates with Amr Moussa get the way to second round it is almost certain that through the integration and unity of Islamists in support of the only Islamist candidate in the second round, the Islamist groups win the election. Now we analyses three results of election.
The futures of Egypt election results: From a strategic point of view on three candidates following results can be predicted:
Wining 1-0 (Weak wining): This kind of wining for the revolution in Egypt is the victory of Amr Moussa in the election. Although he is the candidate supported by the West but because of the Islamist Parliament and the public tendency against Israel he should take the approaches of anti- Zionism. However, in this case, Egypt will have not a prominent role in the resistance axis and official positions of Egypt are limited to reopen the Rafah border and support the injured Palestinians. But also this process is benefit to resistance axis and against Zionist regime. Although he is not a desired option for resistance axis he said one of his main achievement as a foreign minister is his initiative for relation with Iran in 1996. Also he said he would take a stand against attacking Iran, although he has many different viewpoints with Iran.
Wining 2-0: This kind of wining for the revolution in Egypt is the victory of Abolfotooh in the election. If the Arabic - West axis forced to give the victory of the Islamists, Abolfotooh knows better than Morsi. Because if the Muslim Brotherhood in addition of parliament wins the presidential election get to integration of government but with the win of Abolfotooh and his differences with Muslim Brotherhood probably there will be tension and conflict between Islamists. He has moderate beliefs and some observers know him as a figure who likes to form a government similar to turkey.
Wining 3-0: This kind of wining for the revolution in Egypt is the victory of Muhammad Morsi in the election. Regarding a half of the seats in parliament by Muslim Brotherhood and victory in the presidential election, and the dominant presence in the Constitution Drafting Committee make the situation to achieve the next goals of the revolution more than ever. Muslim Brotherhood victory in the upcoming election will greatly increase the bargaining power of the Islamists and Egypt's role in the Islamic world will be more effective.
Conclusion
We need time to achieve fundamental changes in political, cultural and social structures in Egypt. If no transformation, the ultimate goal will be achieved. It means that various stages of this revolution will be done gradually and progressively. If Egypt successfully passes this stage and enter a new stage, it will certainly obtain the next important achievements. Then Egypt's presidential election in which the transition takes place and the revolution will go through a stage to another one is one of the events that are very decisive and determining.
By: Reza Seraj
Borhan.IR
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