Overview on the Egypt's Revolution
In the introduction stage, the gradual phase of Egyptian revolution was investigated. This means that the various stages of this revolution will happen gradually and progressively. The successful passing of a step and entering a new phase, is certainly an important achievement. Egyptian nation patiently go through the various stages of the revolution step by step and the birth of the Egyptian phoenix from the ashes is the blessed hope. We will continue to review these steps. Some of these steps are over, and some are happening now and some will be over in future.
1. Public Demand for Change and Revolution: self-immolation of "Mohammad Bu Azizi" in Tunisia was a spark in the stock of gunpowder made by "Zeinolabedin Ben Ali" for his humiliation the people of Tunisia and his dependence on the West. Ben Ali on January 16, 2011 fell and flames made the explosion Hosni Mubarak, a longtime ally of the Zionist regime. Egyptian youth protests led to public demand in the Muslim people of Egypt to make a revolution.
2. Mubarak’s Fall: Egyptian youth sat in "Al-Tahrir Square" in Cairo on. People joined the youth. The flames of revolution were every day more than yesterday. Western politicians were confused and took contradictory positions confirming an incident has happened to them. Mubarak got one step closer to collapse and after 18 days of resistance of the Egyptian people on February 10, 2011, was ousted from power and according to Egyptian constitution, the military council took power in Egypt.
3. Power Transition: the process of power transition is gradual in nature. Since some parts of this process is over and the other parts are running with some obstacles. After the Egyptian parliamentary election which Islamists won, some parts of power transmitted to people and if the presidential election is held successfully and no obstacles created by the Military Council, the transition process will be completed and power will be transferred from the Revolutionary Military Council of Egypt to people and behind this important step, another step is prepared.
8. Convergence with Anti-Hegemonic Actors: convergence of Egypt with Islamic front will lead to a stronger connection of resistance axis and to creation of a powerful block of Islamic world which is an effective player in the region and the world.
After activities of various political groups began, America, Britain, Saudi Arabia and Qatar made a think tank in U.S Embassy in Cairo with the aim of guiding public opinion. This think tank wants to design media making opinion and do psychological operations to affect Egyptians votes and with the rise of a Western oriented government, prevent the Egyptian revolution to be completed and change the regional strategic balance in favor of U.S.
This think tank has developed two scenarios in this matter including:
A) Integration and unity of West- oriented candidates;
B) divisions and tension between the Islamist candidates.
Domestic Actors in Egyptian election: Egypt's first presidential election after the January 25 and Mubarak fall will be held on 23 and 24 May 2012 And 13 candidates have qualified to participate in this election. These candidates can be generally categorized into four major groups: Islamist, Western oriented, leftist-oriented and national oriented. The main competition is between the two Islamist candidates (Abdolmonam Abolfotooh and Muhammad Morsi) and a Liberal candidate backed by the West (Amr Moussa).
In the following we will briefly introduce the candidates.
Muhammad Morsi: he is the secretary of "Justice and Freedom" party (the political wing of the Brotherhood). He was the second candidates of Muslim Brotherhood after main candidate of Muslim Brotherhood "Kheirat Al-Shater" disqualified. Unlike other members of the Brotherhood he has not a history of imprisonment. If he can win the election, considering the support of parliament from Muslim Brotherhood, this movement can reach its ideal and aim about religion.
Abdolmonam Abolfotooh : Because of his belief in moderate Islam, he is supported by a range of young and reformist Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's middle class and intellectuals . After the announcement of presidential candidacy last year, he was excluded from the movement. The Muslim Brotherhood manifesto written by "Mohammad Morsy" (current candidate backed by the Brotherhood) posed Abolfotooh intellectual criticism in 2007. He is the candidate supported by some Salafis.
Amr Moussa: he was formerly Foreign Minister of Egypt and Arab League Secretary General. His said in a speech: "Camp David is dead and buried". However, he said at the same speech "there is an agreement between Israel and Egypt that until Israel respect it we will also respect it." The document which defined relations between Israel and the Arabs was a plan that is based on the 2002 that has been raised step by step. His dual position has attracted the implicit support of "Shimon Peres" the head of the Zionist regime.
Ahmed Shafiq: The remnants of the former regime and Western oriented Egyptian who was head of the Egyptian Aviation Organization. At the end of Mubarak regime, he was appointed as prime minister. Many analysts believe that Ahmed Shafiq has caused Amr Mosa to feel more secure from a range of revolutionary young criticisms. He has not a great chance to vote unless Military Council wants something else.
Hamidin Sabahi: He is the founder and former president of the party, "Al-Karama", Former representative of the Egyptian parliament as an opposition and active in Egyptian media. He is one of the candidates with the tendency of Naseri. Due to his harsh criticism of the "Anwar Sadat" and "Mubarak", Nasser followers will probably vote on him. He has not a great chance to vote.
Possible Measures of Military Council in the Upcoming Election:
Military Council which is responsible for election can make corruption in process of election by 4 situations: Delay, Fraud, Cancellation and Tension.
Fraud: After opposing the military council with external organizations to monitor the electoral process in Egypt, the likely scenario is an unhealthy and non-transparent and fair election by the military council. Considering the constitution based on Article 28, approved on March 30, 2011 the Independent High Electoral Committee announced the final result of the presidential election in Egypt confirmed by military Council, fraud is likely in the vote results. It is important that the public participation in the election makes the possibility of implementing this scenario less. If the votes of an Islamist candidate and a western oriented candidate are almost equal to each other, a minor fraud that leads to a fundamental change in the result is likely;
Cancellation: Supreme Court ability to invalidate the election results is a tool in the hands of military council to stop the Egyptian revolution and prevent the rise of the revolutionaries. The result of this scenario is to return people to the streets and returning people to the streets may lead to the destruction of Egypt's security mechanisms and the weakening or even collapse of the Egyptian army. In this scenario, military council will face a public semi-hard action and a civil disobedience and in return a strict action against the people.
Tension: In this scenario, military council will attempt to highlight bipolar liberals – Islamists or raise the internal differences of Islamists and the bipolar Tahrir-Abbasiye and broadly create unrest and conflicts to make the situation ready for military intervention in the electoral arena and then prevention of transition of power.
Strategic View on Egypt's Election:
Regardless of these scenarios which are likely to be raised by Military Council, a deep look at the election shows that if the victory of any candidates except Ahmad Shafiq (the worst option at the scene and the figure of the former regime) leads to the transition of power to people, it will be a victory for Egyptian revolutionaries because an important stage of the revolution is over and conditions are ready to accelerate the next steps. Power transition partly leads to Egypt driving away from Qatar and Saudi Arabia and changing regional balance in favor of Egyptian revolutionaries and resistance axis. This wining can lead to the results of 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0 .
The anti-Israeli view among the Egyptian people will force the candidates to persuade the policy of anti-Zionist, affected by Islamist Parliament and people. After power transition in Egypt, this country from a strategic ally of the Zionist regime became one of the Zionist regime threats. In this regard, "Avigdor Lieberman," Foreign Minister of the Zionist regime said "Egypt now is a more serious threat than Iran".
The futures of Egypt election results: From a strategic point of view on three candidates following results can be predicted:
Wining 1-0 (Weak wining): This kind of wining for the revolution in Egypt is the victory of Amr Moussa in the election. Although he is the candidate supported by the West but because of the Islamist Parliament and the public tendency against Israel he should take the approaches of anti- Zionism. However, in this case, Egypt will have not a prominent role in the resistance axis and official positions of Egypt are limited to reopen the Rafah border and support the injured Palestinians. But also this process is benefit to resistance axis and against Zionist regime. Although he is not a desired option for resistance axis he said one of his main achievement as a foreign minister is his initiative for relation with Iran in 1996. Also he said he would take a stand against attacking Iran, although he has many different viewpoints with Iran.
Wining 3-0: This kind of wining for the revolution in Egypt is the victory of Muhammad Morsi in the election. Regarding a half of the seats in parliament by Muslim Brotherhood and victory in the presidential election, and the dominant presence in the Constitution Drafting Committee make the situation to achieve the next goals of the revolution more than ever. Muslim Brotherhood victory in the upcoming election will greatly increase the bargaining power of the Islamists and Egypt's role in the Islamic world will be more effective.
We need time to achieve fundamental changes in political, cultural and social structures in Egypt. If no transformation, the ultimate goal will be achieved. It means that various stages of this revolution will be done gradually and progressively. If Egypt successfully passes this stage and enter a new stage, it will certainly obtain the next important achievements. Then Egypt's presidential election in which the transition takes place and the revolution will go through a stage to another one is one of the events that are very decisive and determining.